Evidence-based Lobbying: What It Is and How to Put It into Practice

Five rules to follow for data-based lobbying, applied to the Zero Carbon Policy Agenda 2022

Introduction

In the complex world of interest representation, the combination of intuition, weak signals and the analysis of “political data” can make all the difference. Iskander De Bruycker, a professor at the University of Antwerp, outlined five “golden rules” for effective data-driven lobbying in his article “Lobbying: An art and a science – Five golden rules for an evidence‐based lobbying strategy“. But how do these rules translate into concrete action? At ADL Consulting, we set out to apply these principles to a real-world case: the Zero Carbon Policy Agenda 2022.

In 2022, the first edition of the Zero Carbon Policy Agenda analysed Italy’s emissions gaps, offering practical guidance to support decarbonisation. The report – which adopts several complementary analytical perspectives, namely the estimate of the expected scenario and the analysis of regulatory targets – provides a clear picture of the most recent dynamics shaping decarbonisation in Italy.

By applying our Digital Lobbying methodology, we contributed to the drafting of the first edition of the Zero Carbon Policy Agenda, published by Energy & Strategy, the Politecnico di Milano team dedicated to consulting and research activities. In particular, we conducted an analysis of the legislation under development for 2023, both in Europe and in Italy, helping to identify a policy agenda that could support lawmakers in defining measures to achieve Italy’s decarbonisation targets.

The “Five Golden Rules”: A Quick Overview

Before turning to the case study, here is a quick overview of De Bruycker’s five golden rules:

  1. Use Data and Intelligence: Analyse the context and the actors involved, in order to then identify data and information that help pinpoint key decision-makers and relevant stakeholders.
  2. Set SMART Objectives: Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic and Time-based.
  3. Know Your Role and Impact: It is essential to use key performance indicators (KPIs) and scientific methods to assess the impact of lobbying activities. To this end, the author suggests three methods:
  • Process Tracing: This method involves reconstructing the decision-making process, highlighting specific cause-and-effect relationships.
  • Preference Attainment: This method focuses on assessing whether an actor has actually achieved its objectives. It distinguishes between success in the adoption of a policy and actual influence, evaluating whether an actor played a key role in shaping certain results or whether the outcomes occurred by chance or as a result of external factors.
  • Perceived Influence: This method assesses the influence perceived by other actors, such as policymakers, other interest groups and experts. It highlights whether or not they recognise an actor’s significant role in influencing a specific decision.
  1. Use internally compatible tactics, i.e. consistent with the target audience, channels and messages used.
  2. Use externally compatible tactics, i.e. suited to the policy context, paying particular attention to alignment with public opinion.

Applying the Golden Rules: The Case of the Zero Carbon Policy Agenda 2022

Building on Prof. De Bruycker’s analysis, in this article we apply his guidelines to a concrete case our team worked on: the drafting – together with the leading representatives of Italy’s energy sector – of the Zero Carbon Policy Agenda.

In our experiment, we departed from the traditional approach to institutional relations: rather than starting from a specific need and developing a lobbying strategy following the five Golden Rules, we started from the political and regulatory analysis carried out for the Zero Carbon Policy Agenda. Our focus was to conduct research based on the open data of the Italian Chamber of Deputies and Senate, and in particular on 139 policy-setting and oversight acts (atti di indirizzo e controllo) tabled in 2021 and 2022 on energy and environmental issues. In light of the Agenda’s objective – identifying a policy agenda that could help lawmakers pinpoint the main political priorities – three of the five rules were applied.

Grounding Your Strategy in Data and Intelligence

The starting point for developing feasible and effective proposals for decarbonisation is a scientific, in-depth analysis of the main features of the national energy mix, potential future market developments and new green technologies. For instance, the Agenda provides extensive information on the energy efficiency investments made in Italy in 2020, as well as the number and geographical distribution of Energy Communities.

Setting SMART Objectives

As regards institutional engagement, the objectives to be achieved can be described as:

Specific: identifying the political and institutional stakeholders active on the macro-themes and suited to an engagement based on our proposals;

Measurable and time-based: assessing the state of implementation of the relevant European energy policies, against the timelines set for each target;

Achievable and realistic: verifying whether the proposals put forward by the industry can be reconciled with the political agenda.

Furthermore, in order to help Italian lawmakers move closer to the decarbonisation targets, a three-tier structure was first proposed to organise and classify the proposals contained in the report. Specifically:

“decarbonization-centered” proposals, which address decarbonisation holistically;

“pillar-specific” proposals, which focus on the individual pillars enabling decarbonisation;

“transversal-topics” proposals, which cover issues with a cross-cutting impact on decarbonisation.

Understanding Your Role and Capacity for Impact within Your Operating Context

The Energy & Strategy Group report identified the political groups it would be advisable to engage with, given their inclination to address decarbonisation issues. The analysis covered the policy-setting and oversight acts tabled in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate between the inauguration of the Draghi Government (13 February 2021) and early July 2022.

Graphic 1 – Most frequent themes in policy-setting and oversight acts, 2021-2022

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Using a set of keywords linked to the Agenda’s themes, it was possible to identify the individual stakeholders most engaged with environmental issues and to whom it was advisable to present the research and the related policy proposals.

Graphic 2: The Five Star Movement (Movimento 5 Stelle), together with the Mixed Group (Gruppo Misto), are the parties that tabled the highest number of acts

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Once the themes of greatest interest had been identified, both from the policymakers’ perspective and from that of the players active in the market, we compared them to identify overlaps and potential mismatches, obtaining a comprehensive picture of the political priorities of the various actors involved.

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Conclusion

Applying Prof. De Bruycker’s “analytical” method can help turn a scientific study, such as the Agenda, into a true compass for lawmakers, grounded in concrete proposals and data.

In this way, the Zero Carbon Policy Agenda – beyond being a research exercise aimed at analysing the state of implementation of decarbonisation policies in Italy – has also become a potential tool from which to derive a lobbying strategy: the policies in force were examined, the targets (both missed and still to be pursued) were analysed, the relevant stakeholders within the political landscape were identified and concrete proposals were developed for presentation to the institutions.